Jet Fuel Shortage: What It Means for Your London Airport Flight This Summer

Jet Fuel Shortage — What It Means for Your London Airport Flight This Summer

The global aviation fuel crisis triggered by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is reshaping summer flight schedules across Europe. Here is what is actually happening, how the UK is affected, and what passengers travelling through London airports need to know.

Published May 2026. Updated regularly as the situation develops.

What Is Causing the Jet Fuel Shortage?

The current crisis has a single root cause: the outbreak of the Iran war in late February and the subsequent disruption to the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway through which roughly 20% of global oil and a significant share of the world's jet fuel supply passes.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz since March has triggered an unprecedented distortion in global jet fuel markets, pushing European aviation fuel prices to historic extremes and exposing the continent's structural dependence on Middle Eastern supply.

Europe is particularly exposed. Summer travel, when demand for flights surges, may be disrupted in Europe if airlines cannot secure additional jet fuel imports. The International Energy Agency's chief told CNBC that jet fuel demand in August is typically 40% above March demand.

A Goldman Sachs research report estimates that Europe's commercial jet fuel inventories are slated to dip below the International Energy Agency's critical 23-day shortage threshold sometime in June. That same report noted that the UK appears most at risk of jet fuel rationing given its large net imports.

Jet fuel prices have reached levels not seen in modern aviation history. Jet fuel prices averaged $181 a barrel worldwide recently, according to S&P Global Energy and the International Air Transport Association's price monitor.

How Has This Affected European Flights?

The impact across European carriers has been significant and is accelerating heading into the peak summer travel season.

KLM announced 160 intra-European route cancellations, citing rising kerosene costs. SAS has cut around 1,000 flights in April. Lufthansa is grounding 27 short-haul aircraft and retiring four long-haul aircraft ahead of schedule. Cathay Pacific is cancelling around 2% of scheduled passenger flights between mid-May and end of June. Norse Atlantic has withdrawn its London Gatwick–Los Angeles service. timeout

Surcharges are appearing across carriers. Air France-KLM is adding €50 to long-haul round trips. SunExpress is adding €10 to Turkey–Europe tickets. timeout

The pattern is consistent: short-haul domestic and European flights operating during off-peak hours are the most likely targets for consolidation or cancellation, as airlines prioritise fuel for highly profitable, fully booked long-haul routes.

The EU has responded at a regulatory level. The European Commission has adopted guidance to the EU transport and tourism sector amid ongoing fuel supply disruptions and the closure of certain air and shipping routes linked to the Middle East crisis. The guidance focuses on aviation, addressing in particular the impacts of potential jet fuel scarcity.

How Is the UK Specifically Affected?

The UK's exposure is structural — the country imports a large proportion of its aviation fuel and does not have the refining capacity to offset supply disruptions from the Gulf.

On 2 May, the UK's Department for Transport announced emergency measures to temporarily relax airport slot rules. Officials stressed that there was no immediate shortage of fuel, but they wanted to provide the industry with flexibility to avoid chaotic, last-minute cancellations.

The DfT's airport slot reform identifies eight UK airports categorised as fully coordinated, including London Heathrow, London Gatwick, London City, London Stansted, London Luton, Manchester, Birmingham, and Bristol. Airlines operating at these airports may apply for exemptions from the 80/20 rule when fuel shortages prevent them from flying.

The headline number from official data is reassuring but carries a warning: according to Cirium data, only 0.53% of the UK's planned flights for May were cancelled. Department for Transport analysis found that around 1,200 flights departing the UK were cancelled between 3 May and 14 June, representing less than 1% of planned flights during that period.

However, passengers are being formally warned to anticipate flight cancellations, schedule consolidations, and last-minute itinerary adjustments throughout the summer. With Europe's fuel inventories potentially dipping below critical thresholds in June, the situation heading into July and August — the two highest-demand months in the aviation calendar — is genuinely uncertain.

UK flight cancellations have already begun on some regional routes. The groundings are partly in response to a drop in demand and the soaring cost of fuel. timeout

The most important practical point: the cancellations that have happened so far are concentrated on less profitable, low-load routes. Major London to European hub services, transatlantic long-haul, and Middle East connections have been less affected so far — but airlines have been transparent that visibility through the summer is limited.

What Does This Mean If You Are Arriving at or Departing from a London Airport?

If your flight is cancelled

Under UK passenger rights regulations, if an airline cancels your flight, they are legally obligated to offer you either a full refund or a rerouting to your destination on the next available flight, regardless of the reason for cancellation.

This is an important protection. Unlike EES delays or weather, a cancelled flight triggers clear statutory rights under UK261 — the retained version of EU Regulation 261 that remained in UK law after Brexit. You are entitled to:

• A full refund if you choose not to travel

• Re-routing on the next available service to your destination

• Care and assistance (meals, refreshments, accommodation if overnight) while you wait for a rerouted flight

The fuel crisis does not remove these rights. Passengers affected by cancellations continue to benefit from air passenger rights. aol

Compensation (the fixed cash amounts of £220–£520 depending on distance) is a different question. Airlines are likely to argue that fuel supply disruption caused by a geopolitical event constitutes an "extraordinary circumstance" outside their control, which would exempt them from paying compensation beyond the refund and re-routing obligation. AirHelp assesses each claim on its individual merits, including cases where airlines have cited the jet fuel crisis as justification. If your flight is cancelled close to departure, it is worth checking your eligibility.

If your flight is delayed

Delays rather than outright cancellations are the more common experience at London airports right now. Airlines are operating their schedules but with reduced turnaround margins, and any knock-on effect from a late inbound aircraft can cascade through the day.

For passengers with pre-booked ground transfers, a delay is manageable — provided your transfer is designed to accommodate it. More on that below.

If your flight goes ahead but on a changed schedule

Schedule consolidations — where an airline merges two lightly loaded flights into one and moves passengers accordingly — are the mechanism airlines are using most to manage fuel costs without outright cancellations. You may find your 07:00 departure has become a 10:30, or that your return flight is moved by several hours.

Airlines are required to notify you of significant schedule changes. Check your email and the airline app regularly in the weeks before departure.

Which London Airports and Airlines Are Most Affected?

Heathrow

Heathrow handles the UK's highest volume of long-haul and transatlantic traffic — routes that airlines are protecting because they generate the revenue needed to absorb higher fuel costs. The major carriers at Heathrow's terminals — British Airways at Terminal 5, Virgin Atlantic and American at Terminal 3, United and Lufthansa at Terminal 2, Emirates and Qatar at Terminal 4 — have not announced significant route withdrawals from Heathrow as of the time of writing.

The risk at Heathrow is not outright cancellation of major routes, but schedule compression as airlines operate fewer flights on thinner margins, leading to knock-on delays when things go wrong.

Gatwick

Gatwick has seen one notable confirmed impact: Norse Atlantic has withdrawn its London Gatwick–Los Angeles service. This is a direct consequence of the fuel crisis — long-haul routes from Gatwick by newer, less-established carriers are the most financially marginal and therefore the first to go when fuel costs spike.

easyJet — the dominant carrier at Gatwick's North Terminal — has been explicit about its position. In its April statement, the airline confirmed it is seeing no disruption to its jet fuel supply and that its flying programme remains fully intact. easyJet has also confirmed it will not add a fuel surcharge to existing bookings.

The South Terminal at Gatwick serves a broader mix of carriers, some of which have been less definitive about their summer schedules. If you are flying from Gatwick South with a carrier other than British Airways, it is worth checking your booking more regularly than usual.

Stansted, Luton, and London City

Ryanair — the dominant carrier at Stansted — has warned of supply disruption risk at a European level but has not announced UK route cancellations as of publication. Budget carriers at Luton are similarly affected by the surcharge and cost pressure picture, though operations remain largely intact.

London City Airport, which serves primarily business routes with smaller aircraft, has lower fuel volume requirements per flight than the major hubs and has been less directly affected so far.

What Should You Do If You Have a Flight Booked?

Check your flight regularly. Airlines are using their apps and email to communicate schedule changes. Turn on notifications and check your booking at least weekly in the run-up to departure.

Do not cancel unless the airline cancels first. If you cancel a flight voluntarily, you lose your statutory rights to a refund or re-routing. Only cancel yourself if the airline's rebooking terms explicitly allow it under the circumstances or you have travel insurance that covers the situation.

Review your travel insurance. The current situation has highlighted how quickly travel plans can change — and why having the right travel insurance in place matters. Check whether your policy covers cancellations caused by fuel shortages or airline insolvency, and whether it covers accommodation and additional transport costs if your schedule is significantly changed.

Book flexible tickets if you have not yet departed. For trips not yet booked, flexible fares that allow free date changes are worth the premium given the uncertainty heading into peak summer.

Allow extra time at the airport. Schedule consolidations and reduced turnaround margins mean that delays are more likely to cascade through the day. Arriving with extra buffer before your departure is sensible.

What This Means for Your Airport Transfer — and How We Can Help

The flight disruption is the airline's problem. Your ground transfer should not become your problem too.

This is where passengers who have pre-booked a private transfer have a clear advantage over those relying on a taxi rank or ride-hailing app at the time of travel.

Here is the practical picture for each scenario:

If your flight is delayed inbound: Your UK Airport Transfer Services driver monitors your actual landing time, not your scheduled arrival. If your Virgin Atlantic service from JFK is delayed by two hours, your driver adjusts automatically. You do not need to call or message. Your fixed price does not change. Your transfer adapts to your flight — not the other way around.

If your flight is rescheduled to a different time: Contact us as soon as you know about the change. We will rebook your collection for the new time. Because your price is fixed at booking and not recalculated at the time of travel, a schedule change by the airline does not expose you to surge pricing on the day.

If your flight is cancelled and you are rebooked on a later service: Again, contact us with your new flight details. We will rearrange the pickup. If you need to stay overnight before a rebooked departure, we cover transfers to and from any London hotel.

If your outbound departure is delayed: Your driver collects you from your door at your confirmed time. If traffic is heavier than expected due to knock-on congestion from schedule consolidations at the airport, your driver is already on the way. You are not standing at a taxi rank in the dark at 04:30 hoping for a car.

The one thing a pre-booked transfer cannot solve is the airline cancelling your flight. We are the ground part of the journey. But we can make certain that the ground part — the collection from your door, the drop-off at your terminal, or the pickup from arrivals after a long and disrupted journey — is the one thing that goes exactly right.

Book a fixed-price transfer to Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted or Luton →

Quick Summary — What to Know

• The global jet fuel shortage stems from the Iran war and the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz

• Europe is the most exposed region, with inventories potentially falling below critical thresholds in June

• The UK is identified as particularly at risk due to its dependence on imported aviation fuel

• UK flight cancellations remain under 1% of scheduled departures so far — but the risk increases through July and August

• Airlines are consolidating schedules rather than making dramatic cuts on major routes, but less profitable short-haul and regional services are being withdrawn

• Heathrow's major carriers have largely held their schedules; Gatwick has seen some long-haul withdrawals

• If your flight is cancelled, you are entitled to a full refund or re-routing under UK261 regulations

• A pre-booked private transfer means your ground journey adapts to whatever happens in the air

FAQ

• Will my flight from Heathrow or Gatwick be cancelled because of the fuel shortage?

  The probability remains low for the moment. Flight cancellations currently remain relatively low, representing less than 1% of planned UK flights so far. The risk increases heading into July and August. The flights most at risk are less profitable short-haul and off-peak services — not major London to New York, Dubai, or Frankfurt routes.

• Can airlines add a fuel surcharge to my existing booking?

  Major UK carriers have been cautious about this. easyJet has confirmed it will not add surcharges to existing bookings. Some European carriers including Air France-KLM and SunExpress have added surcharges to new bookings only. Check your airline's specific position.

• What are my rights if my flight is cancelled due to the fuel shortage?

  Under UK passenger rights regulations, if an airline cancels your flight, they are legally obligated to offer you either a full refund or a rerouting to your destination on the next available flight, regardless of the reason for cancellation. Compensation beyond this (the fixed cash amounts) is more uncertain as airlines will likely argue the fuel crisis is an extraordinary circumstance.

• Should I cancel my holiday because of the fuel shortage?

  Not unless your airline contacts you with a cancellation or significant schedule change. Cancelling voluntarily removes your statutory rights. The majority of flights are still operating normally.

• If my arrival flight is delayed, will my transfer driver still be there?

  Yes. UK Airport Transfer Services tracks your flight from departure. If your service is delayed — whether by one hour or several — your driver's schedule updates automatically. Your fixed price does not change.

• Which airlines are currently most affected?

  Regional and budget carriers on marginal routes have been most affected — SAS cut around 1,000 April flights, KLM cancelled 160 intra-European routes, and Norse Atlantic pulled its Gatwick–Los Angeles service. Major long-haul carriers operating out of Heathrow (British Airways, Virgin Atlantic, Emirates, United) have largely maintained their schedules.